Measuring Subjective Probability by Means of Verval Probability Judgment

Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness

This paper explores a heuristic-representativeness-according to which the subjective probability of an event, or a sample, is determined by the degree to which it: (i) is similar in essential characteristics to its parent population; and (ii) reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated. This heuristic is explicated in a series of empirical examples demonstrating predic...

Quantum Probability Explanations for Probability Judgment ‘Errors’

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum probability theory is a general and coherent theory based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms which relax some of the constraints underlying classic (Kolmogorov) pro...

Subjective Probability

Subjective Probability ∗

We provide an overview of the idea of subjective probability and its foundational role in decision making and modern management sciences. We highlight the role of Savage’s theory as an organizing methodology to guide and constrain our modeling of choice under uncertainty, rather than a substantive statement subject to refutations by experimental or psychological evidence. ∗Prepared for The Wile...

Extrapolating human probability judgment

We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements ab...